Diagrams & Visuals - Lesson 1.1: Problem Tree Analysis

Visual Reference Library

All 8 diagrams from this lesson, colors held consistent.

1. Three-Layer Problem Tree Structure

graph TB
    subgraph Effects["🌿 EFFECTS (Branches)<br/>What happens because the problem exists?"]
        E1["Short-term Effects<br/>Immediate consequences<br/>(0-6 months)"]
        E2["Medium-term Effects<br/>Developing impacts<br/>(6 months - 2 years)"]
        E3["Long-term Effects<br/>Lasting consequences<br/>(2+ years)"]
    end

    CP["🌳 CORE PROBLEM (Trunk)<br/>The central issue your project addresses<br/><br/>• Affects specific population<br/>• In defined context<br/>• Observable & measurable<br/>• Urgent"]

    subgraph RootCauses["🌱 ROOT CAUSES (Roots)<br/>Why does the problem exist?"]
        RC1["Level 1: Direct Causes<br/>Immediate factors"]
        RC2["Level 2: Underlying Causes<br/>Why direct causes exist"]
        RC3["Level 3: Structural Causes<br/>Systems & conditions"]
    end

    CP --> E1
    CP --> E2
    CP --> E3

    RC1 --> CP
    RC2 --> RC1
    RC3 --> RC2

    style Effects fill:#72B043,stroke:#007F4E,color:#fff
    style E1 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style E2 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style E3 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style CP fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px
    style RootCauses fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style RC1 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A
    style RC2 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A
    style RC3 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A

Core Framework

The trunk is your core problem: specific and observable, no causes baked in. Roots go three levels deep. Branches show effects across three time horizons.

2. MCP Research Integration Workflow

graph TB
    Start["🎯 START: Define Your Research Scope<br/><br/>Problem Statement<br/>Geographic/Population Context<br/>Existing Knowledge"]

    Block1["📋 BLOCK 1: System Context<br/><br/>Define AI's Role:<br/>• Evidence-focused research assistant<br/>• Neutral, transparent, concise<br/>• Cite sources (publisher + year)<br/>• Separate facts from assumptions"]

    Block2["🧠 BLOCK 2: Knowledge Context<br/><br/>Share What You Know:<br/>• Draft core problem<br/>• Geographic/population scope<br/>• Existing insights<br/>• Keywords and terms"]

    Block3["🎯 BLOCK 3: Task Context<br/><br/>Define Objectives:<br/>• Preliminary Problem Tree<br/>• Measurable indicators<br/>• 5-10 credible sources<br/>• Uncertainties/assumptions<br/>• Stakeholder questions"]

    Block4["▶️ BLOCK 4: Final Prompt<br/><br/>Clear Instruction:<br/>Generate all outputs using<br/>contexts provided above"]

    AIOutput["🤖 AI OUTPUT<br/><br/>• Problem Tree structure<br/>• Indicator suggestions<br/>• Reading list<br/>• Uncertainties<br/>• Validation questions"]

    Verify["✅ QUALITY VERIFICATION<br/><br/>Check Source Credibility:<br/>• Are sources reputable?<br/>• Are they recent?<br/>• Do links work?<br/><br/>Check Context Fit:<br/>• Matches geography/population?<br/>• Culturally appropriate?<br/>• Any contradictions?"]

    Tag["🏷️ TAG EVERYTHING<br/><br/>(E) = Evidence-based<br/>Supported by credible sources<br/><br/>(A) = Assumption<br/>Needs stakeholder validation"]

    Output["📊 PRELIMINARY PROBLEM TREE<br/><br/>With evidence and assumptions tagged<br/>Ready for stakeholder validation"]

    Start --> Block1
    Block1 --> Block2
    Block2 --> Block3
    Block3 --> Block4
    Block4 --> AIOutput
    AIOutput --> Verify
    Verify --> Tag
    Tag --> Output

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    style Block1 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Block2 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Block3 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Block4 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style AIOutput fill:#72B043,stroke:#5b7c37,color:#fff
    style Verify fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style Tag fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Output fill:#72B043,stroke:#007F4E,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px

AI-Assisted Research Process

MCP briefs the AI like a research assistant: its role, what you know, what you need. Verify sources, then tag each finding as evidence or assumption.

3. Problem Tree Analysis Implementation Steps

graph TB
    Phase1["📋 PHASE 1: Research Planning<br/>Duration: 15-20 minutes<br/><br/>Tasks:<br/>• Define problem scope<br/>• Set research objectives<br/>• Prepare documentation system"]

    Phase2["🔍 PHASE 2: AI-Assisted Research<br/>Duration: 30-40 minutes<br/><br/>Tasks:<br/>• Customize MCP prompt<br/>• Execute AI research<br/>• Quality verification"]

    Phase3["🌳 PHASE 3: Problem Tree Construction<br/>Duration: 25-35 minutes<br/><br/>Tasks:<br/>• Extract core problem<br/>• Map root causes (3 levels)<br/>• Identify effects (time horizons)<br/>• Tag (E) or (A)"]

    Phase4["❓ PHASE 4: Stakeholder Preparation<br/>Duration: 15-20 minutes<br/><br/>Tasks:<br/>• Convert assumptions to questions<br/>• Plan validation approach<br/>• Identify stakeholder types"]

    Check["✅ QUALITY CHECK<br/><br/>Is Problem Tree:<br/>• Logical?<br/>• Evidence-based?<br/>• Community-grounded?<br/>• Ready for validation?"]

    Decision{"Ready for<br/>Stakeholders?"}

    Lesson12["➡️ LESSON 1.2<br/>Stakeholder Mapping<br/>& Engagement"]

    Refine["🔄 Refine Analysis<br/><br/>Return to phase<br/>needing improvement"]

    Phase1 --> Phase2
    Phase2 --> Phase3
    Phase3 --> Phase4
    Phase4 --> Check
    Check --> Decision
    Decision -->|Yes| Lesson12
    Decision -->|No| Refine
    Refine --> Phase2

    style Phase1 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Phase2 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Phase3 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Phase4 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Check fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Decision fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style Lesson12 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5b7c37,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px
    style Refine fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,color:#fff

Step-by-Step Process

Four phases carry you from planning to stakeholder-ready questions in about ninety minutes. The quality check decides: advance to Lesson 1.2, or fix a weak phase first.

4. Evidence vs Assumptions Classification System

graph TB
    Finding["📊 RESEARCH FINDING<br/><br/>Identified cause or effect<br/>from analysis"]

    Q1{"Has credible<br/>source citation?"}

    Q2{"Multiple sources<br/>confirm?"}

    Q3{"Matches your<br/>context?"}

    Q4{"Recent &<br/>relevant?"}

    TagE["✅ TAG AS (E)<br/>EVIDENCE-BASED<br/><br/>High confidence<br/>Can use in problem tree<br/>Still invite stakeholder input"]

    TagA["⚠️ TAG AS (A)<br/>ASSUMPTION<br/><br/>Needs validation<br/>Requires stakeholder confirmation<br/>Prepare specific questions"]

    Convert["📝 CONVERT TO<br/>STAKEHOLDER QUESTION<br/><br/>Open-ended<br/>Non-leading<br/>Explores experience"]

    Finding --> Q1

    Q1 -->|No| TagA
    Q1 -->|Yes| Q2
    Q2 -->|No| TagA
    Q2 -->|Yes| Q3
    Q3 -->|No| TagA
    Q3 -->|Yes| Q4
    Q4 -->|No| TagA
    Q4 -->|Yes| TagE

    TagA --> Convert

    style Finding fill:#F6F6F6,stroke:#737373,color:#2A2A2A
    style Q1 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Q2 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Q3 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Q4 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style TagE fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px
    style TagA fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style Convert fill:#72B043,stroke:#5b7c37,color:#fff

Critical Distinction

A finding earns the evidence tag only if it passes four tests: credible source, multiple sources, context fit, recent relevance. Fail one and it's an assumption instead.

5. Assumptions to Stakeholder Questions

graph TB
    ProblemTree["🌳 PRELIMINARY PROBLEM TREE<br/><br/>With items tagged:<br/>(E) Evidence-based<br/>(A) Assumptions"]

    FilterA["🔍 FILTER<br/><br/>Extract all items<br/>tagged (A)"]

    subgraph Conversion["📝 CONVERSION PROCESS"]
        A1["Assumption:<br/>'Limited access to networks' (A)"]
        Q1["Question:<br/>'What barriers do you face in<br/>accessing professional networks<br/>or mentorship opportunities?'"]

        A2["Assumption:<br/>'Skills mismatch' (A)"]
        Q2["Question:<br/>'What skills do employers need?<br/>How well do training programs<br/>address these needs?'"]

        A3["Assumption:<br/>'Family support crucial' (A)"]
        Q3["Question:<br/>'How do family expectations<br/>affect young women's<br/>economic participation?'"]
    end

    QuestionBank["❓ STAKEHOLDER VALIDATION QUESTIONS<br/><br/>8-10 open-ended questions<br/>Ready for Lesson 1.2"]

    Guidelines["✅ QUESTION QUALITY CHECK<br/><br/>✓ Open-ended (not yes/no)<br/>✓ Non-leading<br/>✓ Explores experience<br/>✓ Culturally appropriate<br/>✓ Encourages storytelling"]

    ProblemTree --> FilterA
    FilterA --> Conversion
    A1 --> Q1
    A2 --> Q2
    A3 --> Q3
    Conversion --> QuestionBank
    QuestionBank --> Guidelines

    style ProblemTree fill:#72B043,stroke:#007F4E,color:#fff
    style FilterA fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style Conversion fill:#F6F6F6,stroke:#737373,color:#2A2A2A
    style A1 fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style A2 fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style A3 fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style Q1 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Q2 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Q3 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style QuestionBank fill:#72B043,stroke:#5b7c37,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px
    style Guidelines fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A

From Analysis to Engagement

Pull every assumption from your tree and turn it into a question that invites a story, not a yes or no. These become your interview guide for Lesson 1.2.

6. Quality Assurance Testing Flow

graph TB
    Start["📊 COMPLETE PROBLEM TREE<br/><br/>Ready for quality review"]

    Test1["✅ TEST 1: Core Problem Quality<br/><br/>□ Specific population defined?<br/>□ Geographic scope clear?<br/>□ Observable & measurable?<br/>□ Connects to mission?"]

    Decision1{"Pass?"}

    Test2["✅ TEST 2: Root Causes Analysis<br/><br/>□ Causes answer 'why'?<br/>□ 2-3 levels of depth?<br/>□ Mix of (E) and (A)?<br/>□ Multiple categories covered?<br/>□ Potentially addressable?"]

    Decision2{"Pass?"}

    Test3["✅ TEST 3: Effects Mapping<br/><br/>□ Realistic consequences?<br/>□ Multiple time horizons?<br/>□ Individual & system impacts?<br/>□ Clear connection to problem?<br/>□ Demonstrates urgency?"]

    Decision3{"Pass?"}

    Test4["✅ TEST 4: Research Quality<br/><br/>□ Major claims have sources?<br/>□ Evidence separated from assumptions?<br/>□ Knowledge gaps acknowledged?<br/>□ 8-10 validation questions ready?<br/>□ Community-grounded approach?"]

    Decision4{"Pass?"}

    Ready["🎉 READY FOR STAKEHOLDERS<br/><br/>Advance to Lesson 1.2:<br/>Stakeholder Mapping<br/>& Engagement"]

    Refine1["🔄 Refine Core Problem"]
    Refine2["🔄 Deepen Root Cause Analysis"]
    Refine3["🔄 Expand Effects Analysis"]
    Refine4["🔄 Strengthen Evidence Base"]

    Start --> Test1
    Test1 --> Decision1
    Decision1 -->|Yes| Test2
    Decision1 -->|No| Refine1

    Test2 --> Decision2
    Decision2 -->|Yes| Test3
    Decision2 -->|No| Refine2

    Test3 --> Decision3
    Decision3 -->|Yes| Test4
    Decision3 -->|No| Refine3

    Test4 --> Decision4
    Decision4 -->|Yes| Ready
    Decision4 -->|No| Refine4

    Refine1 --> Test1
    Refine2 --> Test2
    Refine3 --> Test3
    Refine4 --> Test4

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    style Test1 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Test2 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Test3 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Test4 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Decision1 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Decision2 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Decision3 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Decision4 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style Ready fill:#72B043,stroke:#007F4E,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px
    style Refine1 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,color:#fff
    style Refine2 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,color:#fff
    style Refine3 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,color:#fff
    style Refine4 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,color:#fff

Four-Stage Quality Assurance

Run your tree through four checks: core problem, root causes, effects, research quality. Fail one and fix that piece before moving to Lesson 1.2.

7. Nigeria Youth Livelihood Example

graph TB
    subgraph Effects["🌿 EFFECTS"]
        E1["High youth income insecurity (E)"]
        E2["Rural-urban migration (E)"]
        E3["Lost economic potential (A)"]
    end

    CP["🌳 CORE PROBLEM<br/><br/>Young adults aged 18-25 in rural<br/>communities have limited access to<br/>decent employment opportunities"]

    subgraph Level1["🌱 LEVEL 1: Direct Causes"]
        DC1["Skills-market mismatch (E)"]
        DC2["Geographic access barriers (A)"]
        DC3["Weak entrepreneurship<br/>ecosystem (A)"]
    end

    subgraph Level2["🌱 LEVEL 2: Underlying Causes"]
        UC1["Outdated curricula (E)"]
        UC2["Limited vocational training (E)"]
        UC3["Poor transportation (E)"]
        UC4["Limited internet (A)"]
        UC5["Low startup capital access (A)"]
        UC6["Few business mentors (A)"]
    end

    CP --> E1
    CP --> E2
    CP --> E3

    DC1 --> CP
    DC2 --> CP
    DC3 --> CP

    UC1 --> DC1
    UC2 --> DC1
    UC3 --> DC2
    UC4 --> DC2
    UC5 --> DC3
    UC6 --> DC3

    style Effects fill:#72B043,stroke:#007F4E,color:#fff
    style E1 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style E2 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style E3 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A
    style CP fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px
    style Level1 fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style DC1 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style DC2 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A
    style DC3 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A
    style Level2 fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style UC1 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style UC2 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style UC3 fill:#A3D977,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style UC4 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A
    style UC5 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A
    style UC6 fill:#FDBA74,stroke:#F37324,color:#2A2A2A

Real-World Application

This full example on rural youth employment mixes evidence with assumptions, which is normal. Mark clearly what's confirmed and what still needs a stakeholder's word.

8. Module Integration Flow

graph TB
    L11["📊 LESSON 1.1<br/>Problem Tree Analysis<br/><br/>OUTPUTS:<br/>• Preliminary Problem Tree<br/>• Evidence-based findings (E)<br/>• Assumptions to validate (A)<br/>• Stakeholder questions"]

    L12["🤝 LESSON 1.2<br/>Stakeholder Mapping<br/><br/>USE LESSON 1.1 FOR:<br/>• Validation questions<br/>• Identifying stakeholders<br/>• Testing assumptions<br/>• Gathering community insights"]

    L13["🧩 LESSON 1.3<br/>Synthesize Data<br/><br/>USE LESSONS 1.1 & 1.2 FOR:<br/>• Organizing stakeholder insights<br/>• Converting (A) to (E)<br/>• Refining Problem Tree<br/>• Identifying patterns"]

    L14["🎯 LESSON 1.4<br/>Theory of Change<br/><br/>USE REFINED PROBLEM TREE FOR:<br/>• Effects → Impact & Outcomes<br/>• Core Problem → Purpose<br/>• Root Causes → Activities<br/>• Logic pathway design"]

    Module2["➡️ MODULE 2<br/>Operationalize<br/><br/>Theory of Change becomes:<br/>• Logical Framework<br/>• Activity Design<br/>• Proposal Writing<br/>• Budget Estimation"]

    L11 --> L12
    L12 --> L13
    L13 --> L14
    L14 --> Module2

    L11 -.->|Validation Questions| L12
    L11 -.->|Original Problem Tree| L13
    L12 -.->|Community Insights| L13
    L13 -.->|Refined Problem Tree| L14

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    style L12 fill:#F37324,stroke:#EA580C,color:#fff
    style L13 fill:#F8CC1B,stroke:#CA8A04,color:#2A2A2A
    style L14 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,color:#fff
    style Module2 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5b7c37,color:#fff,stroke-width:3px

Building Foundation Journey

Your Problem Tree feeds Lesson 1.2, gets refined in Lesson 1.3, and becomes the logic behind your Theory of Change in Lesson 1.4.

Using These Diagrams

📚 Learning

• Diagram 1: framework
• Diagram 2: before research
• Diagram 3: mid-lesson
• Diagram 7: example

🛠️ Doing

• Diagram 4: tagging
• Diagram 5: questions
• Diagram 6: checklist
• Diagram 8: briefing

Color System Guide

🔴 Red: problems
🟠 Orange: assumptions
🟢 Green: evidence
🟡 Gold: decisions
🌿 Leaf: outcomes

Where They Appear

Concepts:

Practical:

• Step-by-Step Guide (3, 5)
• Quality Checklist (6)
• Examples (7)
• Lesson Index (8)