The Basic Framework
graph TB
%% EFFECTS (Branches) - What happens because the problem exists
E1["🌿 EFFECT 1<br/>Immediate Impact"]
E2["🌿 EFFECT 2<br/>Medium-term Impact"]
E3["🌿 EFFECT 3<br/>Long-term Impact"]
%% CORE PROBLEM (Trunk) - The central issue
CP["🌳 CORE PROBLEM<br/>The central issue your<br/>project will address"]
%% ROOT CAUSES (Roots) - Why the problem exists
RC1["🌱 ROOT CAUSE 1<br/>Direct Cause"]
RC2["🌱 ROOT CAUSE 2<br/>Direct Cause"]
RC3["🌱 ROOT CAUSE 3<br/>Direct Cause"]
%% Underlying causes (deeper roots)
UC1["🌱 Underlying<br/>Cause 1.1"]
UC2["🌱 Underlying<br/>Cause 1.2"]
UC3["🌱 Underlying<br/>Cause 2.1"]
UC4["🌱 Underlying<br/>Cause 3.1"]
%% Define relationships - Bottom to Top (Roots → Trunk → Branches)
UC1 --> RC1
UC2 --> RC1
UC3 --> RC2
UC4 --> RC3
RC1 --> CP
RC2 --> CP
RC3 --> CP
CP --> E1
CP --> E2
CP --> E3
%% Festa Design System Colors
style CP fill:#10B981,stroke:#059669,stroke-width:3px,color:#fff
style RC1 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
style RC2 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
style RC3 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
style UC1 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style UC2 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style UC3 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style UC4 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style E1 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style E2 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style E3 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
Interactive Diagram
Key Components Explained
🌳 CORE PROBLEM (The Trunk)
The central issue your project will address. Keep it specific, observable, and free from embedded solutions.
- Specific
- Defined population and geographic context.
- Observable
- Can be measured or verified through data.
- Urgent
- Recognized as important by the community and stakeholders.
- Neutral
- Written without causes or solutions.
Good Core Problem Statement
Poor Core Problem Statement
"Young adults lack skills training, which causes unemployment."
Embeds a cause and a solution.
🌱 ROOT CAUSES (The Roots)
Root causes explain why the problem exists and help you decide where your project can intervene.
- Depth
- Go 2-3 levels deep by asking why the problem exists.
- Categories
- Look across economic, social, policy, geographic, and cultural factors.
- Evidence
- Tag each cause as evidence-based (E) or assumption (A).
Examples: Root Causes with Evidence Tags
- Skills-labor market mismatch (E)
- Limited access to startup capital and microcredit (A)
The Power of (E) and (A) Tags
🌿 EFFECTS (The Branches)
Effects show what happens when the core problem continues without intervention.
- Timeframe
- Map immediate, medium-term, and long-term effects.
- Level
- Look at individual, family, community, and system-level consequences.
- Evidence
- Tag effects as evidence-based (E) or assumption (A), just like causes.
Examples: Effects with Evidence Tags
- Immediate: High youth income insecurity (E)
- Long-term: Lost economic potential, demographic dividend (A)
How the Tree Works Together
- Causal logic
- Causes feed the problem; effects justify why the problem matters.
- Project focus
- Where you act depends on which causes your project can realistically address.
From Problem Tree to Theory of Change
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Embedding causes in the core problem statement
Poor: "skills gaps cause unemployment." Good: "limited access to employment."
Confusing a symptom for a cause
Poor: "unemployed" restates the problem. Good: skills-market mismatch, the cause beneath it.
Stopping at surface-level causes
Poor: "skills mismatch." Good: ask why again: curricula misaligned, then transition outpacing training.
Skipping the (E)/(A) tags
Poor: "limited transportation," untagged. Good: tag (A) until stakeholders validate it.