Complete Problem Trees from four sectors, with (E/A) tagging and stakeholder validation questions.
How to Use These Examples
Example 1: Youth Economic Participation
Context: Rural youth employment in East Africa
Complete Problem Tree Structure
graph TB
%% EFFECTS
E1["High rates of youth income<br/>insecurity & poverty E"]
E2["Increased rural-urban<br/>migration E"]
E3["Growing social tensions<br/>& crime A"]
E4["Lost economic potential &<br/>demographic dividend A"]
%% CORE PROBLEM
CP["🌳 CORE PROBLEM<br/>Young adults 18-25 in rural<br/>communities have limited access<br/>to decent, stable employment"]
%% DIRECT ROOT CAUSES
RC1["Skills-labor market<br/>mismatch E"]
RC2["Geographic & infrastructure<br/>barriers A"]
RC3["Weak entrepreneurship<br/>ecosystem A"]
RC4["Social & cultural<br/>factors A"]
%% UNDERLYING CAUSES
UC1["Curricula not aligned<br/>with market needs E"]
UC2["Limited vocational<br/>training access E"]
UC3["Rapid economic<br/>transition A"]
UC4["Poor rural-urban<br/>transportation E"]
UC5["Limited internet<br/>connectivity A"]
UC6["Opportunities concentrated<br/>in urban centers E"]
UC7["Limited startup<br/>capital access A"]
UC8["Few business<br/>mentors A"]
UC9["Complex regulatory<br/>requirements E"]
UC10["Family migration<br/>expectations A"]
UC11["Limited professional<br/>networks A"]
UC12["Gender norms affecting<br/>participation A"]
%% RELATIONSHIPS
UC1 --> RC1
UC2 --> RC1
UC3 --> RC1
UC4 --> RC2
UC5 --> RC2
UC6 --> RC2
UC7 --> RC3
UC8 --> RC3
UC9 --> RC3
UC10 --> RC4
UC11 --> RC4
UC12 --> RC4
RC1 --> CP
RC2 --> CP
RC3 --> CP
RC4 --> CP
CP --> E1
CP --> E2
CP --> E3
CP --> E4
%% Colors
style CP fill:#10B981,stroke:#059669,stroke-width:3px,color:#fff
style RC1 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
style RC2 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
style RC3 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
style RC4 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
style UC1 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC2 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC3 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC4 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC5 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC6 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC7 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC8 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC9 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC10 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC11 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style UC12 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
style E1 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style E2 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style E3 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
style E4 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
Legend: (E) = Evidence-based | (A) = Assumption needing validation
The diagram shows all 25 elements: 4 effects, 1 core problem, 4 direct causes, and 16 underlying causes.
Below is the detailed breakdown of each component:
🌿 EFFECTS / CONSEQUENCES
- Immediate: High rates of youth income insecurity and household poverty (E)
- Medium-term: Increased rural-urban migration of young adults (E)
- Medium-term: Growing social tensions and petty crime in communities (A)
- Long-term: Lost economic potential and demographic dividend (A)
- System-level: Deepening rural-urban inequality and service gaps (E)
🌳 CORE PROBLEM
"Young adults aged 18-25 in rural communities have limited access to decent, stable employment and livelihood opportunities."
🌱 ROOT CAUSES
- • Skills-labor market mismatch (E)
- - Educational curricula not aligned with market needs (E)
- - Limited access to practical/vocational training (E)
- - Rapid economic transition outpacing skill development (A)
- • Geographic and infrastructure barriers (A)
- - Poor transportation connecting rural areas to job centers (E)
- - Limited internet connectivity for remote work (A)
- - Concentration of opportunities in urban centers (E)
- • Weak entrepreneurship and small business ecosystem (A)
- - Limited access to startup capital and microcredit (A)
- - Few successful business mentors or role models (A)
- - Complex regulatory and licensing requirements (E)
- • Social and cultural factors (A)
- - Family expectations about migration vs. staying local (A)
- - Limited networks connecting youth to opportunity (A)
- - Gender norms affecting women's economic participation (A)
Stakeholder Validation Questions
- "How would you describe the biggest economic challenges facing young people in this area?"
Validates core problem from community perspective. - "In your experience, what are the main reasons young people struggle to find good work here?"
Open exploration of root causes. - "What skills do local employers most need vs. what skills do young people typically have?"
Validates skills-market mismatch cause. - "What makes it difficult for young people to start their own businesses or find employment?"
Uncovers barriers (causes) without leading. - "What existing programs or supports work well for young people? What's missing?"
Identifies assets and gaps. - "How do location and transportation affect young people's opportunities?"
Validates geographic barriers assumption. - "Can you tell me about young people who have found good opportunities? How did they do it?"
Uncovers success factors and protective factors. - "How do family expectations and community attitudes affect young people's choices?"
Validates social/cultural factors assumption. - "What would success look like for young people in this community in 2-3 years?"
Begins visioning for Theory of Change. - "Who are the most important people or organizations that could make a difference for young people's economic opportunities?"
Identifies key stakeholders for engagement.
Example 2: Maternal Health (Summary)
Context: Rural maternal health outcomes in South Asia
Core Problem: "Pregnant women in rural areas experience high rates of pregnancy-related complications and maternal mortality."
- Causes: limited antenatal care (E), cultural barriers to care (A), health system weaknesses (E)
- Effects: preventable maternal deaths (E), economic burden on families (A)
Example 3: Education Quality (Summary)
Context: Primary school learning outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa
Core Problem: "Primary school students in rural communities have low literacy and numeracy proficiency by Grade 3."
- Causes: teacher capacity gaps (E), learning environment challenges (A), home-school disconnect (A)
- Effects: grade repetition and dropout (E), reduced lifetime earning potential (A)
Example 4: Environmental Conservation (Summary)
Context: Community forest management in Southeast Asia
Core Problem: "Forest resources in community-managed areas are declining due to unsustainable harvesting and land conversion."
- Causes: economic pressures (E), weak governance (A), knowledge gaps (A)
- Effects: biodiversity loss (E), reduced climate resilience (A)
Notice the Pattern
Key Takeaways Across Examples
- Specificity matters: population, geography, and issue, stated clearly
- Multi-dimensional causes: economic, social, cultural, and policy factors
- 3 levels of depth: direct, underlying, and structural causes
- Balanced (E/A) tagging throughout
- Time-horizon effects: immediate, medium-term, and long-term
Next Steps
- Build your tree: use the Step-by-Step Guide and Templates & Tools
- Validate your work: run through the Quality Checklist
- Prepare to engage: move to Lesson 1.2: Stakeholder Mapping & Engagement