Lesson 1.1: Problem Tree Analysis

Real-World Examples

Complete Problem Trees from diverse sectors, tagged and validation-ready.

Complete Problem Trees from four sectors, with (E/A) tagging and stakeholder validation questions.

Example 1: Youth Economic Participation

Context: Rural youth employment in East Africa

Complete Problem Tree Structure

graph TB
    %% EFFECTS
    E1["High rates of youth income<br/>insecurity & poverty E"]
    E2["Increased rural-urban<br/>migration E"]
    E3["Growing social tensions<br/>& crime A"]
    E4["Lost economic potential &<br/>demographic dividend A"]

    %% CORE PROBLEM
    CP["🌳 CORE PROBLEM<br/>Young adults 18-25 in rural<br/>communities have limited access<br/>to decent, stable employment"]

    %% DIRECT ROOT CAUSES
    RC1["Skills-labor market<br/>mismatch E"]
    RC2["Geographic & infrastructure<br/>barriers A"]
    RC3["Weak entrepreneurship<br/>ecosystem A"]
    RC4["Social & cultural<br/>factors A"]

    %% UNDERLYING CAUSES
    UC1["Curricula not aligned<br/>with market needs E"]
    UC2["Limited vocational<br/>training access E"]
    UC3["Rapid economic<br/>transition A"]
    UC4["Poor rural-urban<br/>transportation E"]
    UC5["Limited internet<br/>connectivity A"]
    UC6["Opportunities concentrated<br/>in urban centers E"]
    UC7["Limited startup<br/>capital access A"]
    UC8["Few business<br/>mentors A"]
    UC9["Complex regulatory<br/>requirements E"]
    UC10["Family migration<br/>expectations A"]
    UC11["Limited professional<br/>networks A"]
    UC12["Gender norms affecting<br/>participation A"]

    %% RELATIONSHIPS
    UC1 --> RC1
    UC2 --> RC1
    UC3 --> RC1
    UC4 --> RC2
    UC5 --> RC2
    UC6 --> RC2
    UC7 --> RC3
    UC8 --> RC3
    UC9 --> RC3
    UC10 --> RC4
    UC11 --> RC4
    UC12 --> RC4
    RC1 --> CP
    RC2 --> CP
    RC3 --> CP
    RC4 --> CP
    CP --> E1
    CP --> E2
    CP --> E3
    CP --> E4

    %% Colors
    style CP fill:#10B981,stroke:#059669,stroke-width:3px,color:#fff
    style RC1 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
    style RC2 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
    style RC3 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
    style RC4 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:2px,color:#1F2937
    style UC1 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC2 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC3 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC4 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC5 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC6 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC7 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC8 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC9 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC10 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC11 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style UC12 fill:#72B043,stroke:#5A8F36,stroke-width:1px,color:#fff
    style E1 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style E2 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style E3 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff
    style E4 fill:#E12729,stroke:#B91C1C,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff

Legend: (E) = Evidence-based | (A) = Assumption needing validation

The diagram shows all 25 elements: 4 effects, 1 core problem, 4 direct causes, and 16 underlying causes.

Below is the detailed breakdown of each component:

🌿 EFFECTS / CONSEQUENCES

  • Immediate: High rates of youth income insecurity and household poverty (E)
  • Medium-term: Increased rural-urban migration of young adults (E)
  • Medium-term: Growing social tensions and petty crime in communities (A)
  • Long-term: Lost economic potential and demographic dividend (A)
  • System-level: Deepening rural-urban inequality and service gaps (E)

🌳 CORE PROBLEM

"Young adults aged 18-25 in rural communities have limited access to decent, stable employment and livelihood opportunities."

🌱 ROOT CAUSES

  • • Skills-labor market mismatch (E)
    • - Educational curricula not aligned with market needs (E)
    • - Limited access to practical/vocational training (E)
    • - Rapid economic transition outpacing skill development (A)
  • • Geographic and infrastructure barriers (A)
    • - Poor transportation connecting rural areas to job centers (E)
    • - Limited internet connectivity for remote work (A)
    • - Concentration of opportunities in urban centers (E)
  • • Weak entrepreneurship and small business ecosystem (A)
    • - Limited access to startup capital and microcredit (A)
    • - Few successful business mentors or role models (A)
    • - Complex regulatory and licensing requirements (E)
  • • Social and cultural factors (A)
    • - Family expectations about migration vs. staying local (A)
    • - Limited networks connecting youth to opportunity (A)
    • - Gender norms affecting women's economic participation (A)

Stakeholder Validation Questions

  1. "How would you describe the biggest economic challenges facing young people in this area?"
    Validates core problem from community perspective.
  2. "In your experience, what are the main reasons young people struggle to find good work here?"
    Open exploration of root causes.
  3. "What skills do local employers most need vs. what skills do young people typically have?"
    Validates skills-market mismatch cause.
  4. "What makes it difficult for young people to start their own businesses or find employment?"
    Uncovers barriers (causes) without leading.
  5. "What existing programs or supports work well for young people? What's missing?"
    Identifies assets and gaps.
  6. "How do location and transportation affect young people's opportunities?"
    Validates geographic barriers assumption.
  7. "Can you tell me about young people who have found good opportunities? How did they do it?"
    Uncovers success factors and protective factors.
  8. "How do family expectations and community attitudes affect young people's choices?"
    Validates social/cultural factors assumption.
  9. "What would success look like for young people in this community in 2-3 years?"
    Begins visioning for Theory of Change.
  10. "Who are the most important people or organizations that could make a difference for young people's economic opportunities?"
    Identifies key stakeholders for engagement.

Example 2: Maternal Health (Summary)

Context: Rural maternal health outcomes in South Asia

Core Problem: "Pregnant women in rural areas experience high rates of pregnancy-related complications and maternal mortality."

  • Causes: limited antenatal care (E), cultural barriers to care (A), health system weaknesses (E)
  • Effects: preventable maternal deaths (E), economic burden on families (A)

Example 3: Education Quality (Summary)

Context: Primary school learning outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa

Core Problem: "Primary school students in rural communities have low literacy and numeracy proficiency by Grade 3."

  • Causes: teacher capacity gaps (E), learning environment challenges (A), home-school disconnect (A)
  • Effects: grade repetition and dropout (E), reduced lifetime earning potential (A)

Example 4: Environmental Conservation (Summary)

Context: Community forest management in Southeast Asia

Core Problem: "Forest resources in community-managed areas are declining due to unsustainable harvesting and land conversion."

  • Causes: economic pressures (E), weak governance (A), knowledge gaps (A)
  • Effects: biodiversity loss (E), reduced climate resilience (A)

Key Takeaways Across Examples

  • Specificity matters: population, geography, and issue, stated clearly
  • Multi-dimensional causes: economic, social, cultural, and policy factors
  • 3 levels of depth: direct, underlying, and structural causes
  • Balanced (E/A) tagging throughout
  • Time-horizon effects: immediate, medium-term, and long-term

Next Steps

  • Build your tree: use the Step-by-Step Guide and Templates & Tools
  • Validate your work: run through the Quality Checklist
  • Prepare to engage: move to Lesson 1.2: Stakeholder Mapping & Engagement
Lesson 1.1: Problem Tree Analysis 91%
Step 10 of 11 · Examples