Lesson 1.1: Problem Tree Analysis

Step-by-Step Implementation Guide

11 steps across 4 phases, about 90 minutes.

Implementation Timeline

graph TB
    P1["📋 PHASE 1: Research Planning<br/>15-20 min"]
    S1["Step 1: Define Problem Scope"]
    S2["Step 2: Set Research Objectives"]
    S3["Step 3: Prepare Documentation"]

    P2["🤖 PHASE 2: AI-Assisted Research<br/>30-40 min"]
    S4["Step 4: Customize MCP Prompt"]
    S5["Step 5: Execute AI Research"]
    S6["Step 6: Quality Verification"]

    P3["🌳 PHASE 3: Tree Construction<br/>25-35 min"]
    S7["Step 7: Extract Core Problem"]
    S8["Step 8: Map Root Causes"]
    S9["Step 9: Identify Effects"]

    P4["💬 PHASE 4: Stakeholder Prep<br/>15-20 min"]
    S10["Step 10: Convert to Questions"]
    S11["Step 11: Plan Validation Approach"]

    P1 --> S1 --> S2 --> S3 --> P2
    P2 --> S4 --> S5 --> S6 --> P3
    P3 --> S7 --> S8 --> S9 --> P4
    P4 --> S10 --> S11

    style P1 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:3px,color:#1F2937,font-weight:bold
    style P2 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:3px,color:#1F2937,font-weight:bold
    style P3 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:3px,color:#1F2937,font-weight:bold
    style P4 fill:#F59E0B,stroke:#D97706,stroke-width:3px,color:#1F2937,font-weight:bold
    style S1 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S2 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S3 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S4 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S5 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S6 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S7 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S8 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S9 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S10 fill:#D9F99D,stroke:#72B043,color:#2A2A2A
    style S11 fill:#007F4E,stroke:#00b369,stroke-width:2px,color:#fff,font-weight:bold

Total: ~90 minutes

Phase 1: Research Planning

Step 1: Define Your Problem Scope

  • Write a clear 1-2 sentence problem statement
  • Specify affected population and geographic area
  • List what you already know

Problem: Young adults aged 18-25 in rural Nyanza region, Kenya, have limited access to stable employment.

Step 2: Set Research Objectives

  • Causes and effects you need to understand
  • Interventions the research should help you design
  • Stakeholders you'll eventually need to engage

Step 3: Prepare Documentation System

  • Create a folder for sources
  • Start from the Problem Tree template
  • Track evidence (E) versus assumptions (A)

Phase 2: AI-Assisted Research

Step 4: Customize Your MCP Prompt

  • Copy the MCP template
  • Replace placeholders with your context

Step 5: Execute and Review AI Research

  • Run the prompt, save outputs immediately
  • Scan for errors or red flags

Step 6: Quality Verification

  • Check credibility of 3-5 sources
  • Verify key statistics against original sources
  • Flag anything that looks like assumption

Phase 3: Problem Tree Construction

Step 7: Extract and Organize Core Problem

  • Refine the problem statement
  • Specify who, what, and where
  • Remove any causes or solutions

Step 8: Map Root Causes by Levels

  • Level 1: direct causes
  • Level 2: underlying causes
  • Level 3: structural causes
  • Tag each cause (E) evidence-based or (A) assumption
• Skills-labor market mismatch (E)
  - Educational curricula not aligned with market needs (E)
  - Limited access to practical/vocational training (E)
  - Rapid economic transition outpacing skill development (A)

Step 9: Identify Effects by Time Horizon

  • Immediate (0-6 months), medium-term (6 months-2 years), long-term (2+ years)
  • Impact levels: individual, family, community, and system
  • Tag each effect (E) or (A)

Phase 4: Stakeholder Preparation

Step 10: Convert Assumptions to Questions

  • Turn each (A) item into an open-ended question
  • Avoid leading questions
  • Aim for 8-10 questions

❌ Bad (Leading Question)

"Isn't training the real problem here?"

✅ Good (Open-Ended Question)

"What keeps young people from finding good work?"

Step 11: Plan Validation Approach

  • Identify who can answer your questions
  • Decide how you'll reach them: focus groups, interviews, meetings
  • Update your tree based on what you learn

Quick Reference Checklist

Common Questions

  • Generic results? Add more geography and population detail
  • Deep enough? Stop once you reach something actionable
  • Skip Phase 2? MCP is optional but saves hours
Lesson 1.1: Problem Tree Analysis 64%
Step 7 of 11 · Step-by-Step Guide